You Position: Home > Paper

Course of disease and related epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: a prospective study based on contact tracing cohort

( views:56, downloads:4 )
Author:
No author available
Journal Title:
Chinese Journal of Preventive Medicine
Issue:
4
DOI:
10.3760/cma.j.cn112150-20220107-00025
Key Word:
肺炎,病毒性;接触者追踪;流行病学计量;新型冠状病毒肺炎;Pneumonia,viral;Contact tracing;Epidemiologic measurements;COVID-19

Abstract: Objective:To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies.Methods:To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease.Results:In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95% CI:3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95% CI:4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95% CI:0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95% CI:9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95% CI:21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95% CI:6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95% CI:1.89-10.47) days, respectively. Conclusion:The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.

  • This article has no references!
WanfangData CO.,Ltd All Rights Reserved
About WanfangData | Contact US
Healthcare Department, Fuxing Road NO.15, Haidian District Beijing, 100038 P.R.China
Tel:+86-010-58882616 Fax:+86-010-58882615 Email:yiyao@wanfangdata.com.cn