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Clinical value of degree of varices and Child-Pugh score in predicting rebleeding in patients with gastroesophageal variceal bleeding

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Author:
No author available
Journal Title:
World Chinese Journal of Digestology
Issue:
26
DOI:
10.11569/wcjd.v25.i26.2387
Key Word:
静脉曲张程度;Child评分;预测;食管胃静脉曲张破裂出血;再出血;Degree of varices;Child-Pugh score;Prediction;Gastroesophageal variceal bleeding;Rebleeding

Abstract: AIM To evaluate the clinical value of degree of varices and Child-Pugh score in predicting rebleeding in patients with gastroesophageal variceal bleeding.METHODS The clinical data of 100 patients with cirrhosis complicated with gastroesophageal variceal rebleeding treated at the First People's Hospital of Pinghu were analyzed retrospectively.Among these patients,56 had gastroesophageal variceal rebleeding (rebleeding group) and 44 did not have (non-rebleeding group).Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed on age,sex,course of disease,white blood cell (WBC) count,platelet (PLT) count,hemoglobin,alanine transaminase,aspartate transaminase,serum albumin (ALB),serum total bilirubin,serum creatinine,prothrombin time (PT),prothrombin activity (PTA),activated partial thromboplastin time,serum Na+ and K+ concentrations,degree of varices,and Child-Pugh score in the two groups.The degree of varices and Child-Pugh score were used to predict rebleeding of gastroesophageal varices by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis.The survival rate of patients with rebleeding was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier analysis.RESULTS Univariate analysis showed that there were significant differences in Child-Pugh score,WBC,PLT,ALB,PTA,PT,portal vein diameter and esophageal varices between the two groups (P < 0.05).Multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that Child-Pugh score and degree of esophageal varices were independent risk factors for rebleeding in patients with cirrhosis complicated with gastroesophageal varices (P < 0.05).The area under the ROC curve of varices combined with Child-Pugh score in predicting cirrhosis was 0.784 (P =0.000,95%CI:0.688-0.881).With a cut-off value of 20.05,the sensitivity was 0.839,and specificity was 0.750.Eventfree survival rate was significantly lower in patients with a value > 20.05 than in those with a value ≤ 20.05 (P < 0.05).CONCLUSION The degree of varices and Child-Pugh score are independent risk factors for rebleeding in patients with esophageal and gastric variceal bleeding.The combination of the degree of varices and Child-Pugh score is of certainpractical value in predicting rebleeding and survival.

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