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Predict of the outcome of 639 cases survived from severe brain injury
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- Author:
- No author available
- Journal Title:
- CHINESE JOURNAL OF NEUROSURGERY
- Issue:
- 2
- DOI:
- 10.3321/j.issn:1001-2346.2008.02.008
- Key Word:
- 颅脑损伤;分类和回归树;预后;预测
Abstract： 目的 建立一个关于重型颅脑损伤患者生存的简单、方便、准确率高的预测模型.方法 采用分类和回归树(classification and regression tree,CART)分析方法,选择8个预后因子,对639例重型颅脑损伤患者的预后进行分析,预后以外伤后6个月生存或死亡为标准.结果 GCS评分是最好的预测因子,血糖、瞳孔情况是强有力的预测因子,头颅CT表现、年龄是有效的预测因子,白细胞计数也对预后产生有意义的影响.CART中的所有变量都与预后相关,预测生存的准确率达91.4%.结论 CART预测模型能较好地预测重型颅脑损伤患者的生存,是简单有效、准确率高的预测方法.
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